FOREX ACADEMY FREE STUDIES

2008-05-27T05:09:00.001-07:00

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2008-05-27T04:08:00.001-07:00

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Dollar Recovers Mildly, Focus on Consumer Confidence and Housing

Dollar recovers some ground in early European session today but is set to face tests of another round of economic data today as markets are back in action. Conference Board consumer confidence index is expected to fall another month from 62.3 to 60.0 in May, which is now more than 40% down from Apr 07's reading. Another round of housing data will be released too. S&P/CS Composite 20 is expected to deteriorate further from -12.7% yoy decline to -14%. New homes sales is expected to drop another -0.6% beyond the 17 year low to 523k.

Euro edged higher to 1.5818 earlier today but reversed after disappointing Germany Gfk consumer sentiment which unexpectedly dropped sharply from 5.6 to 4.9 versus consensus of 5.8%. Germany GDP growth was confirmed at 1.5% qoq in Q1. Imports rose 3.5% which exports rose 2.4%. Japan CSPI rose 0.5% in Apr, up from prior 0.4% but below expectation of 0.5%. Swiss Trade surplus widened to 1566m.

Technically speaking, recent fall in the greenback seems to be losing momentum. But while some more recovery is expected in the greenback, there is not sign of completion of the fall yet. Markets will look into today's data for the trigger of breakout from the tight range established this week in thin holiday conditions.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9774; (P) 1.9802; (R1) 1.9847; More

Cable's retreat from 1.9852 continues today and extends to below 1.9750 minor support as expected. With an intraday top in place, further pull back could now be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.9695). But downside should be contained by 1.9612 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.9363 to 1.9852 at 1.9608) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, above 1.9852 will indicate rise from 1.9363 has resumed. As discussed before, prior break of falling trendline resistance indicates that fall from 2.0391 has already completed at 1.9363, supported above mentioned 1.9337 low as expected. Further rally is now expected to be seen to 2.0029 resistance first and then 2.0391 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 2.1161 have made a low at 1.9337. The corrective nature of the rise from 1.9337 to 2.0391 and fall from 2.0391 to 1.9363 suggests that price actions from 1.9337 are developing into sideway consolidation to whole fall from 2.1161. Though, the structure and length of this consolidation could either be in form of a three wave sideway consolidation or in form of five wave triangle pattern. But in either case, the current rise from 1.9363 should extend further to test 2.0391 resistance. Nevertheless upside of such consolidation should still be limited by 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.9337 at 2.0464. On the downside, below 1.9612 will turn focus back to 1.9337/63 support zone. Break of this support zone will indicate that decline from 2.1161 has resumed.

GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart - Forex Chart, Forex Rates, Forex Directory, Forex Portal
Forex News Digest

* German Q1 GDP Figures Up From Previous Quarter
* The Day Ahead Canada & U.S.: U.S. New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence
* U.S. Preview: April New Home Sales Set to Fall Below 17-Year Low
* U.S. Preview: Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index to Keep Falling
* Yen Falls Against Euro, Dollar as Asian Stock Rally Supports Carry Trades
* Dollar to Rise Versus Euro Later in Year, Mitsubishi UFJ's Takashima Says
* Dollar May Break Range as Double-No-Touch Options Expire, Mitsubishi Says
* U.K. Pound Advances Against Dollar for Second Day, Declines Versus Euro
* Libor Cracks Widen as British Bankers Struggle to Create Credible Reforms
* Pound May Reverse Gains as Spending and Earnings Slow, CMC Markets Says
* Australia, New Zealand Dollars Climb on Investor Demand for Higher Yields

More Forex News

2008-05-24T18:11:00.001-07:00

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2008-05-22T03:49:00.001-07:00

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2008-05-22T03:45:00.001-07:00

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CHINA FOOD PANIC

2008-05-22T03:34:00.001-07:00

THE CHINA FOOD PANIC
********************

This terrible earthquake in China has turned the screws on
food costs-make no mistake.

Here at Global Growth, six of our stocks are shooting up.
Our two grain shippers are up 9% and 11% since the
catastrophe and the reason is clear: shipping rates have
soared 70%. With many rail links down inside China, grain
ships are being called upon to press on to ports further
inland.

And that's not all. We own a cheese maker, a poultry
processor and a fertilizer stock-and they're ALL going
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We will never be ambulance chasers here at Global
Growth, but the China Quake has jolted the world awake to
the profound shortages in oil, food and infrastructure.

We have been hot on the trail of this theme since January,
during which time Sociedad Quimica is up 96%, Mechel is
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Today I have released a set of recommendations that
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==================
Just Since April 1
==================

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* Solarfun Power UP 105%
* Vision China Media UP 75%
* China Sunergy UP 64%
* Yingli Green Energy UP 36%

That's an AVERAGE gain of 70%-in just 45 days!

And we're gathering speed as we pull away from the Wall
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These are the new global winners of 2008 and the only
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===============
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===============

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===========
How To Make
50% A Month
===========

In tonight's issue of Global Growth I tell you why you
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=======================
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=======================

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==============================

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FOREX PAPARAZI INTRO'S

2008-02-19T08:57:00.000-08:00

What is Forex?

FOREX (FOReign EXchange market) is an international foreign exchange market, where money is sold and bought freely. In its present condition FOREX was launched in the 1970s, when free exchange rates were introduced, and only the participants of the market determine the price of one currency against the other proceeding from supply and demand.

As far as the freedom from any external control and free competition are concerned, FOREX is a perfect market. It is also the biggest liquid financial market. According to various assessments, money masses in the market constitute from 1 to 1.5 trillion US dollars a day. (It is impossible to determine an absolutely exact number because trading is not centralized on an exchange.) Transactions are conducted all over the world via telecommunications 24 hours a day from 00:00 GMT on Monday to 10:00 pm GMT on Friday. Practically in every time zone (that is, in Frankfurt-on-Main, London, New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong, etc.) there are dealers who will quote currencies.

FOREX is a more objective market, because if some of its participants would like to change prices, for some manipulative purpose, they would have to operate with tens of billions dollars. That is why any influence by a single participants in the market is practically out of the question. The superior liquidity allows the traders to open and/or close positions within a few seconds. The time of keeping a position is arbitrary and has no limits: from several seconds to many years. It depends only on your trading strategies. Although the daily fluctuations of currencies are rather insignificant, you may use the credit lines, that are accessible even to currency speculators with small capitals ($ 1,000 - 5,000), where the profit may be impressive. (You can learn more about it in the section: The main principles of trading.)
The idea of marginal trading stems from the fact that in FOREX speculative interests can be satisfied without a real money supply. This decreases overhead expenses for transferring money and gives an opportunity to open positions with a small account in US dollars, buying and selling a lot of other currencies. That is, on can conduct transactions very quickly, getting a big profit, when the exchange rates go up or down. Many speculative transactions in the international financial markets are made on the principles of marginal trading.

Margin trading is trading with a borrowed capital. Marginal trading in an exchange market uses lots. 1 lot equals approximately $100,000, but to open it it is necessary to have only from 0.5% to 4% of the sum.

For example, you have analyzed the situation in the market and come to the conclusion that the pound will go up against the dollar. You open 1 lot for buying the pound (GBP) with the margin 1% (1:1000 leverage) at the price of 1.49889 and wait for the exchange rate to go up. Some time later your expectations become true. You close the position at 1.5050 and earn 61 pips (about $ 405). For the calculation of 1 pip click here.

Everyday fluctuations of currencies constitute about 100 to 150 pips, giving FX traders an opportunity to make money on these changes.

In FOREX, it's not obligatory to buy some currency first in order to sell it later. It's possible to open positions for buying and selling any currency without actually having it. Usually Internet-brokers establish the minimum deposit such as $ 2000, for working in the FOREX market, and grant a leverage of 1:100. That is, opening the position at $100,000, a trader invests $1,000 and receives $99.000 as a credit. The major currencies traded in FOREX, are Euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), and Swiss Franc (CHF). All of them are traded against the US dollar (USD).

In order to assess the situation in the market a trader has to be able to use fundamental and/or technical analysis, as well as to make decisions in the constantly changing current of information about political and economic character. Most small and medium players in financial markets use technical analysis. Technical analysis presupposes that all the information about the market and its further fluctuations is contained in the price chain. Any factor, that has some influence on the price, be it economic, political or psychological, has already been considered by the market and included in the price. The initial data for a technical analysis are prices: the highest and the lowest prices, the price of opening and closing within a certain period of time, and the volume of transactions.
A technical analysis is founded on three suppositions:

* Movement of the market considers everything;
* Movement of prices is purposeful;
* History repeats itself.

That is, technical analysis is a statistical and mathematical analysis of previous quotes and a prognosis of coming prices.

A number of technical indicators have been installed into the PRO-CHARTS trading system. Analyzing the indicators one can come to the conclusion about further movements of the quoted currencies. For a more detailed description of the indicators, analyzing price charts and volumes of trading, click here.

Fundamental analysis is an analysis of current situations in the country of the currency, such as its economy, political events, and rumors. The country's economy depends on the rate of inflation and unemployment, on the interest rate of its Central Bank, and on tax policy. Political stability also influences the exchange rate. Policy of the Central Bank has a special role, as concentrated interventions or refusal from them greatly influence the exchange rate.

At the same time one should not consider fundamental analysis just as an analysis of the economic situation in the country itself. A far bigger role in the FOREX market belongs to the expectations of the market participants and their assessment of these expectations. Various prognoses and bulletins, issued by the participants, have a strong influence on the expectations. Very often an effect of the so-called self-filfilling prophecy occurs when market players raise or lower the exchange rates according to the prognosis. But a deep and thorough fundamental analysis is available only for big banks with a staff of professional analysts and constant access to a wide field of information.

In spite of these different approaches, both forms of analyses complement one another. Traders who act on the basis of a fundamental analysis, have to consider some technical characteristics of the market (the main rates of support, such as resistance and resale), and supporters of the technical approach to the market must track the main news (interest rates, important political events).

The main merits of the FOREX market are:

* The biggest number of participants and the largest volumes of transactions;
* Superior liquidity and speed of the market: transactions are conducted within a few seconds according to online quotes;
* The market works 24 hours a day, every working days;
* A trader can open a position for any period of time he wants;
* No fees, except for the difference between buying and selling prices;
* An opportunity to get a bigger profit that the invested sum;
* Qualified work in the FOREX market can become your main professional activity;
* You can make deals any time you like.